Favourites, wildcards and no-hopers in League Two race

Every summer we talk up their chances of promotion from League Two in the upcoming season, and every time they fall short.

But there are some good signs this year, as the league simply does not look as strong.

There was a collective sigh when Stockport lost the 2023 play-off final to Carlisle, as most felt County were the superior side of the two, and would not make the same mistake twice the following season.

They didn’t, going up as 2024 champions, while they were joined in the automatic promotion places by big-spending Hollywood side Wrexham, who most had expected to motor their way up to League One even before a ball was kicked the previous August.

And Mansfield were the deserving side who went up in third, having looked like arguably the most dangerous team in the division at the back end of the 2022/23 season, just timing their run too late to reach the play-offs.

Sounds familiar doesn’t it?

City looked a real force at times under Graham Alexander in 2023/24, especially in the final few weeks, which saw them win six and draw one of their final seven games.

While we all hope they can keep that momentum going into the new season, that is no guarantee, but it has given the bookies good reason to install them as among the favourites to win League Two in 2024/25, with most offering odds of around 12/1.

But who are their main promotion rivals? Let’s take a look at the obvious, the wildcard and the no-hoper…

CHESTERFIELD

Incredibly, since automatic promotion from non-league to the Football League began in 1987, no fifth-tier side has ever gone straight back down.

Chesterfield are in no way expected to break that duck in 2024/25, far from it in fact, with many bookmakers having them as favourites to go up as champions at around 8/1.

It is hardly uncommon for teams to go back-to-back up to League One, see Wrexham last term, and Chesterfield are only building on that momentum they built up in 2022/23.

They were very good in that season’s National League, it just so happened that Wrexham and Notts County were on another planet to everyone else in the regular season.

That being said, the Spireites were only seconds away from stunning the latter in the play-off final.

And rather than dwell on that, they virtually lapped the field last term, only losing three league games up until mid-February, before tailing off a little once the job was done.

Chesterfield won the 2023/24 National League title with several weeks to spare. (Image: PA.)

Four players smashed in double figures, with former Wigan and Northern Ireland striker Will Grigg hitting the net 24 times, as Chesterfield scored a whopping 106 goals on their way to winning the title by 12 points.

And with marquee signings at the back and front, in Chey Dunkley and Paddy Madden respectively, secured for next season already, don’t be surprised if the Spireites seal a second straight promotion.

MK DONS

They’re never going to be the most popular club, but no-one can deny Milton Keynes impressed last season, improving drastically under up-and-coming young manager Mike Williamson after a certain Graham Alexander was sacked in October.

But while Alexander has had a better time of things with the Bantams, he will know his old side pose a major threat when it comes to promotion next season.

Most bookies have them around the 15/2 mark to win the title, as they have been backed to bounce back from the rubble of THAT play-off semi-final.

A crushing 4-1 win over the Bantams last October kicked off a run of just one defeat in 11 games, while a run of seven wins from 12 between the end of February and the start of April wrapped up a spot in the end of season shootout with time to spare.

MK Dons' 2023/24 season was on the up from the moment they thumped the visiting Bantams 4-1 back in October. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

But a haphazard ending should have been a warning sign, with their last three league games a 4-1 defeat to promoted Mansfield, a 5-3 win at lowly Harrogate and a 4-4 draw against relegated Sutton.

And despite finishing fourth, Williamson’s men were humiliated 8-1 on aggregate in the play-off semis by seventh-placed Crawley.

But as we’ve seen with Northampton, Stockport (and Chesterfield in the league below) over the last couple of seasons, so many clubs seem to be bouncing back from these agonising near misses.

And MK Dons were so stung by that Crawley defeat, they have snapped up Laurence Maguire to play at centre-half, after his starring role on loan at the Sussex side as they won promotion through the play-offs.

Crewe captain Luke Offord has also been brought in, as Williamson looks to shore his side up after defensive disasters played such a big role in them missing out on promotion last time out.

MORECAMBE

Listen, Morecambe have their problems, but having them at the longest odds to go up next season seems a questionable call by the bookies.

The Shrimps were only in League One 14 months ago, and not only that, but they brought you know who back earlier this month.

Yes, Derek Adams, best remembered in these parts for a turbulent eight-month spell in charge of City, has stepped into the hotseat at Morecambe for a third time.

Derek Adams masterminded Morecambe's 3-0 home win against the Bantams last August. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

Adams has already won promotion out of this league with Morecambe, and he managed it with Plymouth, so he knows this league pretty well in truth.

The negativity around the club is understandable, with financial issues meaning they need selling, they are currently under a transfer embargo, and most of last season’s mid-table squad has departed.

But club director James Wakefield insists he knows no-one better than Adams at quickly building competitive teams, and the Scot insists there is room for manoeuvre in the summer transfer window.

A promotion specialist can elevate unfancied teams to glory (just ask Stevenage and Steve Evans) and don’t be surprised to see Morecambe do far more than is expected of them in 2024/25.

COLCHESTER

Danny Cowley is a talented manager, but it did seem unusual that many were touting him for the vacant City job over Alexander last year.

His star has undoubtedly fallen since he worked wonders at Lincoln, with disappointing spells following at Huddersfield and Portsmouth.

And while he did enough to keep Colchester’s head above water in League Two last season, they only won four of his 20 games in charge following his arrival in early January.

Andy Cook scores for the Bantams in their draw at Colchester in mid-January. (Image: Thomas Gadd.)

Their last four finishes in the fourth tier have been 20th, 15th, 20th again and 22nd, and it increasingly feels like a matter of time until they drop into non-league for the first time since 1992.

Cowley has been hinting at a revamp of his squad in the press this summer, but the signings so far have not exactly pulled up any trees.

New keeper Matt Macey did not play at all last season, while winger Harry Anderson was bombed out by Stevenage.

It always feels so much harder to predict the top sides in League Two compared to say the Premier League, so who’s to say we should write Colchester off?

But they are not exactly backed by the bookies to make waves next season, at 33/1 with most to win the title, and their recent history suggests those doubts exist with good reason.