The European Commission has just suggested that EU governments should embrace a binding target to reduce CO2 emissions by 2030. The target figure – non-negotiable – is to be a volume of emissions 40 per cent lower than in 1990.

The UK Government seems pleased with this figure because it was expected to be even higher, as it really should be if we are to meet the commitment to the 80 per cent reduction by 2050 that is enshrined in the UK Climate Change Act. However, it’s still a demanding ambition, as in 1990 we produced 592 million tonnes so the target figure, at 40 per cent less, will be 355 million tonnes.

It’s going to be a really difficult challenge as by 2012 it had only fallen to 479 million, a reduction of 19 per cent, and this was helped by the economic recession with less manufacturing and more of our goods being made overseas.

Provisional figures for 2013 show a small growth, to 483 million tonnes, and all the signs are that this is likely to continue. With the emphasis on economic growth, it will be very difficult to find another 20 per cent cut, to reach 40, when the first 20 took more than 20 years, and owed much to changing from coal to gas for electricity production.

Every indicator is now pointing the wrong way. We are well behind schedule for replacing our elderly nuclear power stations, more fossil fuel will be used as coal is now the cheapest it has been for decades, and the ambition for CO2-rich fracking will mean more gas-fired power stations when they should be on the way out.

It won’t help that the Government wants to bring back manufacturing from overseas, so some of the Chinese and Bangladeshi CO2 will come back with it, and neither is the oil news helpful.

World prices could halve when Iran and Iraq get together to challenge the Saudi OPEC control, and closer to home, the political decision not to increase fuel duty will help maintain the CO2 from transport.

Disappointingly, the EU hasn’t set national targets for renewable energy after 2020, sticking to a figure of 27 per cent for the whole EU, and this, with the continued emphasis on fossil fuels, cheap coal and fracked gas, means that the UK renewable energy industry has been marginalised and will continue to struggle.

And, to make matters worse, the Green Deal, to improve energy efficiency in our homes, is failing to meet even minimal targets, meaning we can’t even reduce our own personal CO2.

So, on balance, we are unlikely to meet the 2030 target, though even deeper widespread flooding down south might commit the politicians.