Flu season ‘officially under way’ as winter virus levels continue to rise

The rise in infections has prompted Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty to allow antiviral medicines to be prescribed to some patients who present themselves at GP surgeries or A&E departments with flu-like illnesses.

An average of 402 people were in hospital each day last week with flu, up by nearly two-thirds (65%) from 243 in the previous week, including 18 people in critical care beds, NHS data shows.

It is the highest number so far this winter, but is below the equivalent figure for this point last year – 1,248 – when the UK was in the middle of its worst flu season for a decade.

The hospital admission rate for flu stood at 2.1 per 100,000 people in the week ending December 10, up from 0.9 the previous week.

Norovirus levels are also continuing to rise, with an average of 506 adult hospital beds filled last week by patients with diarrhoea and vomiting or norovirus-like symptoms.

This is up a quarter (25%) from 406 beds the previous week, and 31% higher than at this stage last year, when the average stood at 387.

Norovirus is the most common infectious cause of diarrhoea and vomiting, spreading easily through contact with someone who has the virus or with contaminated surfaces.

The decision to allow the use of antiviral medication for some patients attending GP surgeries or hospitals has been prompted by “the rates of influenza circulating in the community”, with the sharp increase in numbers a signal that “flu season is officially under way,” the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said.

Antivirals can help reduce the chance of hospitalisation when used for treatment of people with flu-like illness or patients at risk of influenza complications.

Health minister Maria Caulfield said: “Authorising the use of antivirals indicates that flu is reaching more serious levels so it is important that we take care.

“I’d encourage anyone eligible who is yet to come forward for the vaccine to book an appointment and get protected as soon as possible.

“These additional tools will help us relieve the pressure on our NHS as they cope with the busy Christmas and New Year periods and will provide extra protection not just for you but also for your loved ones.”

Pregnant women, their unborn babies and those in clinical risk groups are at “higher risk” of complication from flu, according to Dr Mary Ramsay, UKHSA director of public health programmes.

“Taking up both the flu and Covid-19 vaccines provides the best protection for both pregnant women and their baby, reducing the risk of severe complications, intensive care needs, stillbirth and prematurity,” she said.

Thursday December 14 is the last day people can book their flu and Covid-19 vaccinations online using the national booking system.

After December 14, jabs can be booked through local NHS vaccination services, such as pharmacies or walk-in centres.

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said flu and norovirus levels were “increasing considerably each week” and were contributing to a “challenging winter” for the NHS, along with delays in discharging medically fit patients and strikes later this month by junior doctors.

He added: “Our staff will once more be prioritising urgent and emergency care to protect patient safety and ensure those in life-saving emergencies can receive the best possible care, and the public can continue to play their part by using NHS services in the usual way – calling 999 in an emergency and using NHS 111 for other health conditions, and by getting their flu and Covid jabs if eligible.”

The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has risen in recent weeks, signalling the start of a possible winter jump in infections.

Admission of patients testing positive for coronavirus stood at 3.8 per 100,000 people in the week to December 10, up from 3.0 the previous week and 2.5 a fortnight ago, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

At this point in 2022, the rate stood at 6.6 per 100,000, up from 5.5 the previous week and on its way to a peak of 11.4 in the run-up to Christmas.

An average of 2,761 people who tested positive for Covid-19 were in hospital in England each day last week, up from 2,343 the previous week but less than half the number at this point last year (5,650).

This is also well below the levels seen during the winters of 2020 and 2021.

Rory Deighton, acute network director at the NHS Confederation, the membership organisation for the healthcare system, said: “The rise in winter bugs such as flu and norovirus and staff absences is a concern and a sign that pressures are only going to ramp up as we get deeper into the cold season.

“While the efforts trusts have put in to prepare for winter have borne fruit, including around 1,500 more beds than last year, services can only cope with so much before patient safety could be put at risk.

“Bed occupancy is still high despite more beds and delayed discharges remain a major challenge.”

An average of 12,947 hospital beds per day last week were occupied by people ready to be discharged, up from 12,883 the previous week, but lower than 13,834 in the equivalent week last year.

Some 44% of patients ready to leave hospital last week were actually discharged each day, down from 45% the previous week, but higher than 40% at this point in 2022.

The biggest obstacle to the speedy discharge of medically fit patients is often a lack of beds in other settings, such as care homes or community hospitals.

Delays can also be caused by hold-ups in sorting transport, medicines and paperwork, or because patients have nowhere to be discharged to.