Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

It wasn’t so much based on hard statistics, as instinct (and hopes) that at least things couldn’t go on getting any worse.

More companies said things were little better than three or four months ago, although the recovery was still patchy.

Although Bradford still relies more heavily than most areas of the UK on manufacturing, the fight-back is being led by the service sector, which, according to the chamber, seems stronger and more positive than manufacturing, where orders were slower to arrive.

More firms were expecting to invest and were seeing turnover increase.

The most recent survey also showed fewer companies shedding jobs than in the previous four quarters, but no-one can be confident that further cuts will not happen next year.

Sandy Needham, the chamber’s chief executive, said one encouraging feature had been fewer job losses in Bradford than had been feared when the recession started.

She said: “While many firms have introduced pay freezes or cut hours, wherever possible most have tried to hang onto their workforce in the knowledge that they will need their skills once a recovery arrives.

“It has also been encouraging that many firms have been prepared to continue spending money on training, both to improve skills levels and develop people.

“Based on the feedback we get and talking to a cross-section of business people, I think the mood for next year can be summed up as ‘cautious optimism’.”

One blot on the horizon, however, could be the General Election.

Mrs Needham said uncertainty over who might win, and what fiscal and economic policies the next government would adopt, could lead to firms delaying investment decisions.

There would be a period of caution and ‘wait and see’ in the run-up to the election, which has to be held by June at the latest. The poll could then be followed by another period of caution as business awaited the impact of new policies – which could further retard any potential upturn.

A crack-down on public sector spending, expected from whichever party wins the election, would also curb demand from the one part of the economy that has so far provided a valuable source of work for many firms as the private sector battened down the hatches in the recession.

It is also likely that firms will continue to worry and complain about access to finance as bank funding remains tight Bradford has a particular problem with its image due to the severe effects of previous recessions and the contraction of traditional industries – but equally because of the snail’s pace of regeneration.

The negative perception of the place which this creates is seen by business leaders as a real barrier to long-term progress and economic improvement, particularly inward investment into the district.

Chamber leaders believe that Bradford’s UNESCO City of Film status offers a real opportunity and should be grabbed with both hands. It should help promote business around tourism and heritage, as well as offering new markets to the growing digital sector.

They also believe the new Leeds City Region and the Leeds Bradford Corridor Programme will bring benefits for Bradford through initiatives in transport, housing, skills and ‘public realm’.

More details of these initiatives will be unveiled in 2010.

Stephen Wright, who heads compressed air specialists Thorite, is in a good position to take a view of the future as his firm – one of the largest of its kind in the UK – deals with a wide range of industrial sectors, from food-processing to construction.

Mr Wright, who sits on the regional council of manufacturing body EEF and is vice-president of Bradford Chamber, is prepared for a long haul back to recovery.

He said “I think it’s going tot take a long time to get back to what might be considered normality. Our own business provides something of a barometer, and while we have seen some sectors pick up, others, such as construction, remain in the doldrums.

“In our own case, things improved during the summer but have slowed down again as many customers defer capital investment.

“Engineering varies from sector to sector, but demand from construction remains low, with little work around, while food producers have benefited from a surge in demand for budget food during the recession.”

Thorite, which has survived since 1850, designs, supplies and maintains a range of compressors, process valves and fittings.

The Laisterdyke-based firm is benefiting from providing systems that help companies reduce energy usage and become greener, which Mr Wright expects to remain a growth market in 2010.

He added: “Although the capital equipment market remains tight, firms are increasingly seeing the cost and environmental benefits of reducing energy use.”

Recent figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed that the Government’s ‘cash for bangers’ scrappage scheme has provided a major boost to car dealers.

John Tordoff, chief executive of Bradford-based JCT 600 – one of the UK’s largest independent motor groups, with 44 outlets selling everything from Minis to Maseratis – agreed that the scheme had boosted sales, but said the firm would manage alright once it ends when funds run out.

Although there was lobbying to get the scrappage scheme extended again, Mr Tordoff said it was not crucial to JCT 600’s success.

He said: “It would be good to see the scrappage scheme extended, but we are not relying on the scheme for our business. We’ve seen great sales in both new and used cars this year, with demand high across the board, from family to luxury makes.

“Although the recession has increased unemployment, the vast majority of people still in work have more disposable income as a result of lower interest rates and so on, for items such as cars “We don’t see that situation changing in the near future and expect to continue doing well in 2010.”

The Confederation of British Industry believes the recession has raised concerns about commercial models, supply chains and finance that will reshape business behaviour well into the next decade.

The leading business organisation said that the recession and credit crunch had become the catalysts for a new era.

Andrew Palmer, CBI regional director, said: “We may be at the start of a new era for businesses in which attitudes to finance and corporate leadership are changed for a generation by the shock of the past two years.

“What we now need is a more balanced, less risky pathway to growth – one in which the short-term returns may be lower, but the long-term rewards for management success will be a lot more sustainable and secure.

“There are questions around how businesses are going to finance growth and investment in the future. And in a more collaborative, less transactional world, closer relationships with customers, suppliers, employees and shareholders look like becoming the new norm.

“Firms looking to reduce risk and acknowledge their interdependence are seeking more collaborative ways of working through partnerships and joint ventures.”

The last word goes to Bradford Chamber of Commerce president Harold Robinson, who said: “I hope that it’s not tempting fate to say that things can hardly get any more difficult this coming year than they have been for the last two – can they?”