Today marks the fifth anniversary of the attack on the World Trade Centre by al-Qaida terrorists. PAUL ROGERS, professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, speculates as to what the next five years might bring in the war on terror.

After the 9/11 attacks five years ago President Bush declared a global war on terror against al-Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan and then went on to declare an "axis of evil" of rogue states such as Iraq, Iran and North Korea.

Within four months of the attacks, the Taliban regime had been terminated, and barely a year later the US-led coalition ended the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. There is now talk of military action against Iran.

For the first few months everything seemed to be going America's way, and there still haven't been any further attacks within the United States. Even so, any objective assessment of the war on terror suggests that it is not going as planned, and President Bush's administration is increasingly criticised for the war in Iraq.

Although the al-Qaida movement has had many of its leaders killed or imprisoned it remains active, with more than 30 attacks in different parts of the world. They include bombings in London, Madrid, Istanbul, Jakarta, Casablanca, Mombasa, Karachi, Sinai and many more, with planned attacks in Rome, Singapore, Paris and the United States itself.

Anti-Americanism is far more intense in many parts of the world, and the United States and its partners are deeply mired in insurgencies in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US forces have had more than 2,500 troops killed and 19,000 injured in Iraq alone, but the losses among Iraqi civilians are massively higher - well over 45,000 killed and over 100,000 injured.

Torture and prisoner abuse have done a lot to damage America's standing in the world and there are constant threats of more attacks as President Bush urges his people to accept that they are fighting a "long war" against what he calls Islamofascism.

It is all so very different from what was expected and it is worth trying to see what might happen in the next five years, especially if there are no changes in policy by the United States.

The first point is that al-Qaida is not a single narrowly structured organisation with a firm chain of command and branches stretching across the world. It is now much more of a movement of ideas, with all kinds of loosely affiliated groups, even if they have similar long-term aims.

These include the eviction of foreign military forces from the Middle East, the overthrow of what are considered to be pro-western and elitist regimes in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan, support for separatist groups in southern Thailand and elsewhere and the creation of a Palestinian state.

The long-term aim is the re-establishment of an Islamic Caliphate, initially across the Middle East. The short-term aims are all measured in decades not years, and the Caliphate may take a century to establish. The great majority of Muslims are opposed to most or all of these aims, yet many are deeply critical of the conduct of the United States, especially in Iraq.

The al-Qaida timescales are very different from Western attitudes and give the movement one of its main sources of strength.

Its supporters would claim some successes already, including the withdrawal of US military forces from Saudi Arabia two years ago and the instability now evident in the governments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The United States sees it essential to oppose all these aims and to do so with vigorous force. Part of the motive is the original shock of the 9/11 attacks and the real feeling of vulnerability, but this is coupled with strong support for Israel, especially from the Christian Zionist movement that has acquired such political influence in recent years.

Beyond that, the sheer importance of Persian Gulf oil, with both the United States and China competing for dwindling reserves, means that the Pentagon simply will not contemplate withdrawing its forces from the region.

On present trends we therefore face the prospect of another five years of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan, more attacks from the al-Qaida movement, the distinct possibility of a war with Iran and a very troubled and unstable Middle East.

The alternative approach would look to undercutting the al-Qaida aims, starting with a single-minded effort to get a just and lasting peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians. Some way has to be found of decreasing the intensive violence in Iraq, and Afghanistan has to receive far more aid if it is not to become another failed state.

Beyond that, Western governments have to stop working intimately with the elite regimes across the Middle East that consistently fail to encourage democracy and use brutal methods to curtail public dissent.

None of this means that countries such as Britain should not continue to counter individuals and groups who seek violence but it is hugely important to work for better community relations at the same time.

There is also a major responsibility within Islam to promote the idea that it is, at root, a religion of peace, not war, and that the extreme elements are an aberration.

Overall, though, western countries in general and the United States in particular have to move away from a near-total reliance on military force. This has failed consistently over the past five years and will continue to do so.

Unless there are major changes of policy we face not another five years of war but at least 30 years.

  • Prof Rogers is also International Security correspondent for www. opendemocracy.net and has a new book, Into the Long War, out in November published by Pluto Press.