OF the 30-plus runners who will line up for the world's greatest steeplechase - the Martell Grand National at Aintree on Saturday - going on trends in recent years many runners can be discounted at the outset.
The National may, of course, throw up an upset, but it is not the lottery it once was and the chances of a Foinavon-style shock 100/1 victory appear remote.
Age, weight, form and class play a major part in the race these days, so we can narrow down potential victors and, in theory, put ourselves in with a realistic chance of finding the winner.
The pattern over the past decade has shown that runners carrying between 10st and 11st in the £420,000 4m 4f marathon have usually prevailed.
Nine and ten-year-olds have the best record and decent current season form appears essential.
Using these guidelines, there seems to be only one horse in it this year, the Paul Nicholls-trained nine year old Double Thriller, who has long been touted as a handicap snip with a weight of 10st 8lb.
Double Thriller did his reputation no harm when finishing fourth in this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The horse will be ridden in Saturday by his regular pilot Jason Tizzard, but the only problem is he's a hotpot best-priced 9/2 favourite, which is rather on the short side for a race such as the National.
However, Double Thriller remains a confident selection - the trip may be the only worry - and I'll stick to my guns despite the price.
Using the same formula, another for the shortlist is Baronet (David Nicholson, Richard Johnson, price 20/1). Coome Hill (W.W.Dennis, Steve Wynne, 33/1) and, if declared to run, Martin Pipe's Cyborgo, who will be a very long price, could be worth some interest, though both fall short on form. The showpiece race is due off at 3.45
In the 1.45 hurdle race opener at Aintree, I may take more than a passing interest in the aptly-named Mister Rm - and not just because the horse could well have been named after the writer!
The seven-year-old, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and due to be ridden by Carl Llewellyn - the pair responsible for last year's National winner Earth Summit, has been showing improved form of late and appears a lively contender.
In the two-miles Red Rum Chase at 2.20, there are some class horses in the field.
Direct Route is due to carry top weight, but is not certain to run.
He'd be a leading fancy if joining the line-up, but the booking of Richard Donwoody for Charlie Mann's Celibate looks significant.
Incidentally, many congratulations to Richard, who this week broke Peter Scudamore's long-standing record for riding the most number of winners.
Champion hurdler Istabraq will be virtually unbackable in the Aintree Hurdle at 2.55, though over an extra four furlongs French Holly, third in the Champion, may get closer - and will certainly respresent better value.
Channel 4 cameras televise the first four races from the flat meeting at Hamilton.
Ribble Assembly, a facile winner first time out for Roses Racing Club trainer Kevin Ryan, should again run well in the opener at 1.10, while Mick Channon's Barringer can land the first five furlongs sprint half an hour later.
Have a look at the William Haggas-trained Anthony Mon Armour in the first six furlongs handicap at 2.10.
Converted for the new archive on 30 June 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.
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