Tough exam targets for Bradford pupils are unlikely to be met next summer, according to the boss of the schools watchdog Ofsted.

Mike Tomlinson, Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Schools, said he believes the district will flunk its GCSE target requiring 40 per cent of pupils to get five A-C passes after only 33 per cent of Bradford children achieved that standard this year.

Failure to hit targets could cost Serco, the private company now heading Bradford Education, up to £1.8 million in incentive payments.

But Mr Tomlinson - in the city to officially open Heaton Primary School's new building - said he was confident Bradford's education system, widely discredited in an Ofsted report last year, has turned the corner.

He believes improvements will be reflected in a better report when Ofsted returns next year for a follow-up inspection on Bradford LEA.

"You have now got some pretty tough targets, and from what I have read the view is they will not be met," Mr Tomlinson said.

"But it's important to set these benchmarks. We don't want a quick splurt and then a falling back. We want long-term, sustained improvements."

Roger Edwardson, interim director of achievement at Education Bradford, said: "There is no suggestion we are going to fail but there's a recognition the targets we have got are very ambitious."

Mr Tomlinson said he is impressed with the new team that has been assembled to lead Bradford's new-look education system. And he rates Mark Pattison, who will be managing director of Serco after Christmas. Ofsted has published a glowing report on Blackburn Council where Mr Pattison is director of education.

And as a fellow Rotherham lad he knows and admires David Mallen, the new chairman of Bradford Education Policy Partnership.

Improvements to Bradford pupils' exam performance may take time but, meanwhile, parents should rally behind teachers, said Mr Tomlinson. "Teachers have gone through a period where they have been criticised and blamed for a variety of failings in the education system," he said.

"I understand from inspectors' visits to schools in Bradford that they are doing a very good job of dealing with the aftermath of September 11 and what happened in the summer. It's a very challenging job and they deserve more credit and esteem from parents."

He "makes no apology" for the decision to suspend Ofsted reports in Bradford during the massive schools re-organisation. Ofsted inspections re-started last September for primary schools and this term re-start for secondary schools.