KEIGHLEY: Minister bidding to hang on to his seat in marginal constituency targeted by Labour

People living in this key marginal seat may well help to decide whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband is Prime Minister after polling day.

And what makes the battle all the more interesting is the fact that the Conservative candidate fighting to retain his seat is a Minister in the coalition Government.

This means it is one of a handful of seats across the country where political pundits will be looking out for the possibility of a high-profile loss - a so-called Portillo moment.

Local Government Minister Kris Hopkins, a former leader of Bradford Council, was elected as the Keighley MP five years ago, with a reasonable majority over Labour’s Jane Thomas of 2,940.

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But whereas most Conservative ministers enjoy large majorities in safe seats, the same can’t be said of Mr Hopkins.

Many constituencies in Yorkshire are either safe Labour seats in post-industrial towns and cities, or safe Tory seats in leafy rural areas, but Keighley - an intriguing mixture of both - has regularly changed hands between the two parties since the 1920s.

It is one of the ‘bellweather’ constituencies that often predicts which party will form the Government - electing Labour’s Ann Cryer in 1997, the year Tony Blair swept into number 10 with a landslide victory, then electing Mr Hopkins in 2010 when David Cameron became Prime Minister, leading the coalition Government.

This year, Keighley is in 48th place on Labour’s national list of target seats, and its candidate John Grogan appears to be gaining ground.

Also standing are Gareth Epps for the Liberal Democrats, Paul Latham for Ukip and Ros Brown for the Green Party.

Bookmaker William Hill has Mr Grogan as the favourite - it is offering odds of 8/13 on Labour taking the seat, with odds of 5/4 on the Conservatives retaining it.

Odds of 25/1 are being offered on a Ukip win, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 150/1.

Knowing that Keighley may well prove a tipping point over who gets to lead the next Government, both parties have been giving the fight all they’ve got, with a host of heavyweights making personal visits to show their support for their candidate.

Those who have so far dropped into Keighley, Ilkley or the surrounding area include Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne for the Conservatives and Labour’s leader Ed Miliband and Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham - all keen to try to sway voters in an election where every seat counts.

In many ways, the Bradford district’s different constituencies will act as a microcosm of this year’s General Election overall - with Bradford East representing the Liberal Democrats’ battle to retain seats, Bradford South the rise of Ukip, and Bradford West the performance of the smaller left-wing parties.

In Keighley, it’s a straightforward clash between Conservative and Labour, and the eyes of the UK will be on it when the results are announced.