Simon Parker column
The season-ticket holder on the T&A sports desk is living in a state of permanent anxiety.
It’s been the way ever since City began their Easter resurrection by beating Torquay and other results suddenly fell into their lap.
Up to that point it seemed foolish to even suggest that the Bantams could force their way back into the play-off picture. But as the scores rolled in on April Fool’s Day, you sensed that this tale could still have a further twist.
Events in the past fortnight have confirmed that – but City, being City, never make things simple.
So we come to the penultimate day of the league campaign with everything still up for grabs. Hence the picture of nervous exhaustion that faces me across the computers.
There will be thousands who feel exactly the same way. Nails have been chewed down to the quick and beyond; fingers are probably disappearing now.
The mathematics remain simple: win both games and City are in the play-offs, whatever the bunch behind them might do.
If only it was as straightforward as that. But they are facing sides who are thinking exactly the same thing.
Burton and Cheltenham have just as much to play for, with the third automatic spot – which Rotherham slithered into on Tuesday night – the most tempting of targets.
After three straight wins, this week has acted as a sharp slap in the face for anyone of a claret and amber persuasion. Any hint of giddiness disappeared with the scruffy equaliser at Chesterfield.
And when that man Steve Evans continued his hold over the Bantams in midweek, League Two’s largest audience were reminded that this could still fall either way.
When Ricky Ravenhill poached his first goal in 14 months, City were potentially on 67 points and within scrapping distance of an automatic promotion finish themselves.
A week on and they start the final home game on 65 with the sole intention of saving what they’ve got and hanging on to that last play-off ticket.
Unlike some perennial contenders, this is uncharted territory at Valley Parade – this century at least.
They might boast a 100 per cent play-off record with the glory of 1996 but not since the Premiership survival battle 13 years ago have City gone into the last two games with their prospects still ‘live’.
The fact that everybody seems to be playing each other makes this current bun fight even more exciting. A glance down the fixture list this weekend suggests only one dead game among the dozen in League Two.
Everywhere else there is somebody with something to play for, whether it’s top seven, top three or escaping the bottom two. No wonder the fans find it impossible to concentrate.
Victory tomorrow afternoon could do the job for City with a game to spare – if Cheltenham avoid defeat at Exeter.
A draw at St James Park would leave the Grecians three points behind and still technically in the hunt. But even if they did win on the last day at Chesterfield and City lost, it would need a four-goal swing to exchange places.
Evidence from the last ten years suggests that 70 points is enough to make the cut. Crewe finished seventh on 72 last season but three of the four years before that saw teams hang on with 68 and 69 – that’s one win and possibly a draw from where the Bantams are now.
Interestingly, the lowest-placed play-off qualifier has gone on to reach the final for four successive campaigns.
Crewe won it last year against sixth-placed Cheltenham. Southend, who had finished 11 points better off, did not even get to Wembley.
Torquay in 2011 were beaten in the Old Trafford showpiece by a Stevenage side who themselves had only ended in sixth. Neither finalist that season had hit the 70-point barrier and once again the fourth-placed finisher – Shrewsbury – had no consolation for claiming 11 more.
The previous two years both saw seventh play fifth in the final. Dagenham were unexpected winners over Rotherham in 2010, Shrewsbury going down to Gillingham the season before.
You have to go back to 2008 for the last occasion that the lowest-ranked contender bowed out straight away, when Wycombe were seen off over two legs by eventual play-off champions Stockport.
That was also the last time that the team in fourth went on to win promotion, indicating that clubs struggle to raise themselves again after the disappointment of just missing out on going up automatically.
Momentum is the crucial factor and often it’s the team that qualify last who are the ones possessing that extra spring in the step.
So the omens are good. It’s just a case of getting there first ...
Breathe easy.
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